Troops to pull back at Hot Spring, Pangong Tso, but PLA soldiers will remain on Indian territory - Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Stuff.

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Saturday, 11 July 2020

Troops to pull back at Hot Spring, Pangong Tso, but PLA soldiers will remain on Indian territory

 Satellite pic of Pangong Tso (courtesy: twitter.com/detresfa_), showing the line through Finger 4 that is now effectively the LAC

By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 11th July 20

After days of negotiations between Indian and Chinese officers on the terms of disengagement in the Hot Spring area of Ladakh, the two sides have agreed on Saturday to pull back troops by one kilometre (km) each, say government sources.

The disengagement, which is expected to be completed by Sunday, will create a demilitarized buffer zone of two km, roughly along the Chang Chenmo River, into which neither side will send patrols for the present.

These terms of disengagement are to China’s advantage. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers, who have intruded 3-4 km across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) into Indian territory near Patrolling Point 15 (PP-15), and about 2 km near PP-17A, will only be required to pull back 1 km, say the sources.

That means that, even after the disengagement, the PLA will remain 2-3 km on the Indian side of the LAC near PP-15 and at least one km inside Indian territory near PP-17A. Effectively the demilitarized buffer zone will lie entirely in Indian territory and the LAC would effectively shift by 1-3 km into India.

The plus side to the disengagement is that Indian and Chinese troops will pull back from their dangerous eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation in this sector. About 1,000 soldiers from each side have been confronting each other near PP-15 and about 1,500 from each side in the vicinity of PP-17A.

However, there is no withdrawal or thinning out of the large number troops that the PLA has concentrated on the Chinese side of the LAC, east of India’s PP-18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23. Chinese artillery guns also remain deployed across the LAC from PP-19.

Pangong Tso disengagement

Also disadvantageous to India is the mutual withdrawal being implemented in the Pangong Tso lake sector, where Chinese troops are required to pull back from the confrontation point at Finger 4, to Finger 5 further east. Meanwhile, Indian troops are required to withdraw from Finger 4 to the area of Finger 3, say government sources.

In violating the LAC that lay along Finger 8, and taking control of the north bank of the Pangong Tso till Finger 4, the Chinese intruded 8 km into Indian-claimed territory. With the terms of disengagement requiring them to withdraw by 2 km to Finger 5, PLA troops will remain about 6 km inside Indian-claimed territory.

On the other hand, the withdrawal of Indian troops by 2 km from Finger 4 to Finger 3, will increase the depth of territory lost to 10 km. 

Even more worrying, Chinese soldiers are reportedly withdrawing only from the banks of Pangong Tso. The bunkers and defensive works the PLA has built on the dominating heights above the lake remain occupied by the Chinese, giving them a clear view of Indian activity as far as the west end of the Pangong Tso lake.

As Business Standard reported earlier (July 9, Withdrawal from Galwan Valley puts Indian troops further from LAC) India was also disadvantaged in the earlier disengagement agreement negotiated for the Galwan River valley. The buffer zone agreement for that sector effectively involved the concession by India of one km of territory on the Galwan River.

21 comments:

  1. Brilliantly stated.
    The Chinese Chess board equivalent game of "WEI QUE"...surround and confront but don't attack...has been going on since 1962 in bits and pieces by them on us. The Chinks are abs clear on their strategy and tactics for decades- this is the nature of them managing better handling of the inherent contradictions over decades.
    The Chinese have understood their opponents as comprehensively as us Indians have totally misunderstood their intentions. Our advisers to PM have never studied the Mao Red Book, which is the basis of their internal, external policies for years. Mainly because it is a sin and sacrilege to do so. Gandhian practices will be affected!
    The Mahabharata Warfare taught us that one needs to understand/know one's enemy inside out to defeat him/her. Kautaliya and even "The Prince" have advised the same. Mao as well. Sadly, other than our armed forces which has its own unique strategies, our leaders have belief in a hogwash of Nehruvian left overs till date. And we mess up

    So unless the wrongs of the past are corrected with a conscious effort and till such time us Indians ostensibly become more Chinese than the DECEITFUL Chinese, India shall remain at the receiving end. We have to imbibe guirella warfare within OURSELVES first to survive in this vicious world. The Chinese are doing it their way. Indians can do it much better given the vedic mgmt background we have carried over for centuries.
    Can there be any paradigm shift finally or will there be a mixture of so called secular-bania culture ?

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  2. The credibility of the post is doubtful, source on which it is based on which information is unknown . Will be delighted if a credible source is provided .

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  3. Someone said 'No expanism' there should not be any expansion.

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  4. the us of america's defence headquarters, pentagon, in successive series of war games conducted over sept, nov 2019 concluded that the US of america would lose in a war with china fought in the pacific. in the event of PRC taking over taiwan, US of america has known for some years now, that there is nothing to stop PRC. their conclusion: the world will find that US of america 'is out to lunch'.
    maybe we should rework our priorities in the guns versus butter conundrum. these are the words, in a speech during 1953, of dwight d eisenhower, a former and eminently successful military commander who subsequently became president of US of america.
    "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.
    The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.
    This is, I repeat, the best way of life to be found on the road the world has been taking. This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron. ... Is there no other way the world may live?"
    for a start: do we really need to, in india, destroy our arable lands, forest to extract iron ore for export to PR china. and grow cotton in arid districts irrigated after indiscriminate extraction of precious water from alarmingly depleting water tables only to see almost 90 percent of all our spinnable grade cotton being exported to support other nations garments industries. almost 15 percent of india's exports to china is made up of raw cotton, and a similar proportion is made up of iron ore. our military, police, school children, postmen, railway workers uniforms are clothed in uncomfortable, unpleasantly hot polyester viscose blends.

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  5. Ajay Shukla the Chinese spokepwrson doing a job assigned to him

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  6. Thank you Sir for your valuable information. Salute you for expressing the actual scenarios of Chinese intrusions of thousands of KM to Indian territory & reality of disengagement.🙏

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  7. What is the solution.zwould you like India to go on war
    Do you mean to say that India has not gained advantage.There is always distressingly negative news about India.

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  8. From where you got this news when govt. has not disclosed the deal. Stop spreading rumours or else present concrete evidence like satellite images to verify.Always politics.

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  9. China can't be trusted , they're colluding with Pakistan. Untill and pakistan is checked and their terror camps are destroyed and POK is put onto Indian territory china will not keep quiet. Hence only finishing off Pam's capabilities will deter china from making mischief. Modiji is well aware of this fact. Bofore china wakes up from the courageous attitude of India this , pakistani might should be negated

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  10. Four step forward two step backwards

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  11. Is it not " Salami Slicing", Indian negotiators would know what is good for our Country.

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  12. What is your problem if they are saying that normal patrolling will start after some days upto our claim lines?? Chinese had claimed upto finger 2 in panging tso and our claim was upto 8..so was there any fixed structures or posts b/w finger 2 and 8 earlier till March? No..there fixed posts were beyond finger 2 and 8! But they were patrolling upto around 4 and we were upto 8! So creating indian post b/w 3&4 was also against early aggrements! So if India will be back till its permanent post before finger 2 and we will also force them to go beyond 8 then how come lac is changed Into our territories? It will be like earlier permanent position are occupied and patrolling will continue till 8 after disengement! One thing is clear ,u like pappu have made bold mood to anyhow falsely prove that "we have lost territories under modi " ..do u know the situation difference than earlier? Do u remind we had to dismantle our roads and construction to make them leave when they intruded in manmohan govt for around 13kms?? And now we r constructing more faster against their will with our legs on their chest? Don't be pappu..get well soon!

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  13. It is evident that China intruded in Indian territory and are still occupying our territory and is in advantageous position inspite of withdrawal,their policy is two step forward one step back. It negates the government claim that ther was no intrusion

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  14. False information without fact..

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  15. I think Indian army buying time to retreat in a big way to PLA, it is really occuward position to India despite bloody confrontation with pla June 15th, India must rework strategy to push china pla over buffer zone where zone where pla is in Indian Territory

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  16. In terms of the guilty caught completely exposed, chinese regime is caught with an aggressive foot forward in various fronts. Ir looks like the government of india is looking at the partial victory to the political advantage. An approach to complete the India map that the parents and kids of the country can say, "this is what India is, in completion", remains a deprived fact for more time. The focus on economic front is partial and we claim that set back to the chinese incursion and corona while the territorial integrity claim is loosely claimed due to the economic implications of a war.
    The political reality is not permanent and the quad support to control china as done this time may not be available in future. US, Russia, Australia are not all weather allies for India without a business benefit. Japan and Israel are the only economies with a brotherly dependency in both good and bad times. Their all weather support is more based on how good the Indian goverment is, in an ethicalbpursuit to reap the positive benefit from such partners. Something that the current govt did very effectively with both the seasonal and sll weather partners.why are we not stretching to the extra mile to complete the long awaited encroachment remains unanswered to the average indian.

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  17. Unable to understand why we are withdrawing from our own land?Even Mr.Modi questioned the same few years back.& Repeated the same mistake of UPA government.

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  18. Keep up your good work for the sake of the nation. It seems the military and political leadership in control of the statecraft in Delhi are in the doldrums. The NSA boss is running around like a show celebrity as he pops in the limelight by raising his head in the news every now and then. As I have noted elsewhere in the web's blog column, does one ever see the CIA director or the MI5 head, or KGB's chief in the newsprint or TV show? That says how low level the Intelligence Apparatus of India has stooped after the election of 2014.

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  19. We were caught unprepared once again
    Why did India agree to withdraw its troops from its own side of thr LAC ? This is surrender to the Chinese hegemony.

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