A new and worrying chapter: Ladakh intrusion by Chinese troops gathers momentum - Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Stuff.

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Friday, 22 May 2020

A new and worrying chapter: Ladakh intrusion by Chinese troops gathers momentum



By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 23rd May 20

For the first time since the Kargil intrusions of 1999, Indian territory is in the hands of foreign soldiers. Starting in the third week of April, more than 5,000 Chinese soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have intruded into five points in Ladakh – four along the Galwan River, and one near the Pangong Lake.

While patrol intrusions from both sides are routine in areas where the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – the de facto border between India and China – is disputed, the LAC in the Galwan Valley corresponds to China’s official claim line.

That means that, in sending thousands of PLA troops three-to-four kilometres into the Galwan Valley, China has violated its own claim line and occupied territory that Beijing itself has traditionally acknowledged to be Indian.

This is not shaping up like a routing patrol confrontation, or even a temporary occupation of disputed territory of the kind that took place in Depsang in 2013, or in Chumar in 2014. This time the PLA soldiers are digging defences, preparing bunkers, moving in heavy vehicles and have reportedly even moved artillery guns to the rear (albeit in their own territory) to support the intruders, say the sources.

The Chinese have pitched close to a hundred tents at four points on the Galwan River between Patrolling Point 14 (PP 14) and another location called Gogra.

Indian troops in the area were taken by surprise when a large Chinese force crossed the LAC into the Galwan area in late April. Since then, Indian forces have not challenged or confronted the PLA.

Sources say the PLA is expanding its presence. There are fresh reports that the PLA has already initiated another infiltration into another sector in Southern Ladakh.

The Pangong Lake intrusion has been especially bloody for the Indian soldiers there. Sources say 72 Indian soldiers were injured in the confrontation and some of them needed to be flown to hospitals in Leh, Chandi Mandir and Delhi.

The PLA intrusions into Ladakh do not appear to be a localized operation, since they are spread across the area of responsibility of different PLA brigades and division. That suggests centralized coordination from at least the PLA’s theatre command.

Contacted for confirmation, senior officers in the army’s public information directorate declined to comment. Sources say the prime minister’s office (PMO) and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval are overseeing the Indian response.

At the local military level, which falls under the ambit of the Leh Corps Commander, there is little contact with the Chinese. It is learnt that the PLA has stopped responding to Indian requests for flag meetings under the mutual protocol termed the “Border Management Posture” (BMP). “It is a stand-off in which there is presently no communication,” says a senior military officer.

The unusual level of Chinese aggression is illustrated by an incident at the end of April when two Chinese helicopter chased off an Indian helicopter in which the Leh Corps Commander was surveying Indian positions near the Pangong Lake.

The army admits that there was an incident involving helicopters from both sides, but states it was a “coincidence” that the Chinese helicopters were there. The Indian Air Force (IAF) chief, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria admitted in an interview this week that there was Chinese helicopter activity in the area, but claimed that the IAF was taking “necessary action”.

There is little clarity within government about why the Chinese have triggered this intrusion, along with another simultaneously in Sikkim. Some officials speculate that Beijing is punishing New Delhi for publishing a revised map of the former state of Jammu & Kashmir in November, which showed Aksai Chin – which both countries claim, but China occupies – as a part of India. 

Another viewpoint holds that the traditionally peaceful Galwan River has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) -- the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh.

Along the 800 kilometre LAC in Ladakh, there have traditionally been just five trouble spots, where the two sides dispute the LAC. These are Chumar, Demchok, Pangong and two places near DBO. The PLA’s ingress into the Galwan River valley opens up a new and worrying chapter.

75 comments:

  1. NSR says ---

    Why India does not send troops or fly helicopters 15 to 25 km into Aksai Chin like China does into Indian Ladakh? Can you explain?

    Did India reclaim the land on which 5 km road was built in 1999 when India moved troops to Kargil and left it unattended? Can you clarify?

    Tibet,, 1962 war,, South China Sea, etc …
    China will never change unless it gets a bloody nose from its neighbors like Vietnam and Myanmar...
    It immediately settled the border on McMahon line and watershed principles...

    Does India needs to forget about lands lost forever?

    It looks like we will lose more of the lands piece by piece if we do not fight and give them a really bloody nose...

    I hope that you make some clarifications and write an in depth article in future too...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Be courage and defeat enemy fiereclee if india win china wont dare next time....in future or be coward give away all land they will take inch by inch n next will be arunachal pradesh

      Delete
    2. Wait there'll be a right time
      ...

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    3. Do not have Shi.... to challenge

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  2. Water, glacial and tibetan, is China's target. This intrusion was predictable.

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    Replies
    1. What crap, almost all river flow south, how can they take the water and what use is the glacier then??? Can they stop the water flow??

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  3. India should take hard steps on China. China never friends for India and Indian people have no sense because they use Chinese products.

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  4. there is nothing that should surprise us as long as we have Pakistan and China as our neighbors. they will keep testing our resolve and keep pushing us and since there is no clear roadmap on how we resolve these complex issues such incidents will recur forever.
    Sadly this is why we must always be prepared for 2 or more front war scenarios as they can never be ruled out

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  5. China will respect a strong India. If India exhibits weakness in resolve to defend its territory, then we shall see more such intrusions in future. Success in negotiations and strength are synonymous. It is often the stronger side which gains in both negotiations and conflict. We have no option other than being fully prepared to counter Chinese designs.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Why India is not settling it's border disputes with China? Why do we lack confidence when it comes to sitting across the table with our neighbors. 73 years on and the problems continue to lacerate.

    ReplyDelete
  7. China is a rogue nation. India and China were neighbors.
    Now China having occupied Tibet is expanding its territories and wants to pressurize India to tow its Lines. We need to internationalize the misadventure.
    Actually China is used to bullying its neighbors. The aggression is serious and needs strong and immediate response.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If anything it is India that is a rogue nation. India has differences with China. India has differences with Pakistan. India has differences with Sri Lanka. India had differences with Nepal. India is in violation of UN resolution regarding Kashmir. Now even the EU and the US have expressed their frustration with India over Kashmir. And if this all is not bad enough, India went ahead with a controversial citizenship law which targets Muslims

      Delete
    2. After abrogation of Article 370, India is not going to get international support thru the UN. Enjoy Hindura idiocy.

      Delete
    3. kaushik this us important to us.maybe not for u.

      and Irfan we dont hv border disputes with srilanka.
      Pakistan us a terrorist land.world knows.
      China is a mechant land.
      There is no violation in UN.its india who had taken this matter to UN.
      you might want only pronlems with india or anti indian.
      but not surprised.
      its muslim, who has problem with every community in the world

      Delete
    4. Sad to read such cynical opinion of Indians. Chinese are stronger as their own never doubt the country. Any and everyone can criticize govt but not the country. Wht country does is resolve of it's people. We are weak because of Indians like you who only how to criticize instead of giving suggestions and positive opinions

      Delete
    5. Iran and kaushik ghosh are the sick mentality which afflicts few Indians ( can they be really Indians wide this anti national thinking). Both Pakistan and China believe in browbeating. For both pakistan has problems with baluchistan ( forcefully illegally occupied territory) Iran and even Afghanistan. China has border disputes with every country.

      Delete
  8. You are taking a very narrow view of what is happening.
    Can you please put up the maps of this sector that are agreed between China & India ?
    If no map exists, can you please state why this has not happened so far ?

    As far as numbers are concerned, there are a lot of experienced people refuting it. Please put up satellite images showing accommodation for so many troops

    ReplyDelete
  9. "Slap the Dog to scare the Tiger"....Chinese rarely act with tactical objectives in sight....there's a larger game plan at work it seems

    ReplyDelete
  10. Seeing Ajit Doval's name in the article gives a little relief. India may want to give dialog a chance, war may not break loose but India will now surely exert itself on China's pressure points... And that includes Hong Kong. With the world breathing down China's neck India may find it easier to internationalise this...

    ReplyDelete
  11. Indians expect experts like Ajay ji to deliver just what he has done today. Thx to Shukla ji and business standard both

    ReplyDelete
  12. It is ironic that our NSA, CDS and Chiefs are sleeping or have they chickened out. C'mon Sirs, there has been too much blood spilled by our brave jawans and Officers to secure that territory. Dont carry the heavy burden of diluting and letting those sacrifices go in vain. My blood boils, does yours too?

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  13. Very Serious Situation. ☹️☹️☹️☹️

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  14. What we know to do is enter Chinese territory at a spot where they are weakest

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  15. Wait and see attitude doesn't augur well

    ReplyDelete
  16. Indian army must be confronted with Chinese army, if they can't send there north East people with gun to chase off chinese army

    ReplyDelete
  17. Yes absolutely alarming situation for India

    ReplyDelete
  18. The article is biased for some unknown reason. Some facts are deliberately ignored,It gives a wrong picture of the situation. The means and capabilities of Indian Army should not undermined. If possible the correct information should be published.

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  19. Shouldn't we plan to CALL THEIR BLUFF !?
    Reaching the Shyok is NOT AN INTRUSION, it's an ACT OF WAR !
    We are as was Pak in TRIDENT or PARAKRAM.

    ReplyDelete
  20. It is said, "don't pull a tiger by its tail". India exactly did this by attending Taiwan's President swearing in. For China, Taiwan is the red line in the sand. Cross this at your iwn peril.

    Secondly, when both sides accept that their respective perceptions of the LAC are different, who is intruding whose side? Remember Nehru's Forward Policy which ended in a disaster.

    ReplyDelete
  21. you say 5000 PLA soldiers are on Indian Soil and we are mute spectators? What is the role of Army Chief if everything will be micro managed from PMO?

    ReplyDelete
  22. Things are getting grim at home, time for a little foreign adventure to rally the country around the CCP.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Indian can easily respond to China by punishing them economically. We are a huge consumer of Chinese produce and if 1.00 Billion Patriotic Indians decodes to boycott their products and projects, they will be on their knee. And today's Indians are capable of giving this body blow very fast.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha ha ha fight bro fight

      Delete
    2. Agree. Duty of every indian citizen to boycott chinese products. To start with, uninstall all chinese softwares from your mobiles/computers within a week. Then stop using chinese products over a year. Yes! We can do this��. C'mon India!!

      Delete
  24. ITS ALL ABOUT THE ROADS, INDIAS BEST DEFENCE WAS ITS BAD ROADS TO TIBET, THEY MADE THE CHINESE FEEL MORE SECURE. ROADBUILDING BY INDIA HAS UNBALANCED THE EQUATION.
    You have forgotten to mention the almost continuous (for the past decade )the reinforcement of DBO which includes the longer airstrip. The improvement to the road along the Shyok, eventually planned to take heavy vehicular traffic.
    Then a few years ago India began landing heavy transport aircraft at DBO.
    DBO is an Indian dagger into Tibet through the mountains, given the motor able road an Indian assault can cut off the G219. Interfere with military traffic going on to the G314 to Pakistan.
    This was not an issue in the past, but the situation now has changed, the future tarmac road to DBO can connect to The existing network of military Chinese roads in Akshai Chin.
    The Chinese new position in Gulwan is is because the best cut off to to the DBO road is here (Not far from the LOC) along the Shyok with an attack coming via the Gulwan river.
    The Pangong Tso is part of the Chinese defensive mountain wall in front of which, it has not been gone unnoticed by China, India has been reinforcing the border roads building airstrips.
    In particular India has decided to improve the road to Demchok from Manali India. the Chinese will have to take Chushul and Demchok and it’s roads to prevent access to Chinese road network . The new Indian roads make India vulnerable too , the old policy of not building mountain roads as the best defence against China was perhaps better.
    This is an adjustment by the PLA theatre command to the emerging new reality on the Indian side, except China to enhance their presence on territory they perceive as theirs.





    ReplyDelete
  25. Until and unless we teach the Chineseca lesson things would go like this. Why should we keep quiet. We lost Aksai Chin because we did not take immediate action. We should never be sitting ducks.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Simce last year china has been fingered by our so called news channel like wion(zee network) it is working as a government mouth piece. Challenging them openly even the bjp It cell. And no one ever questioned it. Very sadden and hurt by as these events are unfolding. Bjp has brought us in a very bad position. Broke our backbone internally by demonitisation then gst then divided the population on CAA. Very bad situation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please read economic news better before commenting like roadside wanderer... indian economy is not only governed by GDP... our markets and trade was booming before covid19 attack.

      Delete
    2. I know this is exactly the message which this blog, actually, means to convey, but it doesn't sound so.

      Delete
  27. Chinese are exploiting Indian markets by selling their spurious but glittering products. Why can't the government decided to put heavy tarrif on these products like America did. India should exibit a strong resolve .

    ReplyDelete
  28. Appeal to all patriotic Indians to take an Oath to Import/boycott/shun usage of All Chinese products...for EVER!
    Make China bleed economically ������

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The world is still waiting for India to be that source of those goods. India though does not want to take up that responsibility. Until an alternative is found, we are stuck with China.

      Delete
  29. NSR says ---

    Please post the maps of the locations with boundary markings and patrolling areas...

    Does Indian Army patrol 15-25 km into beyond LAC like chinese does on Indian side?

    Does IA patrol parties go up to their 1999 Pangong Tso mark or they gave up patrolling that 5 km?

    If India does not destroy those bunkers, then it will be just like Doklam where they have permanent fixtures and stores in mountain caves...

    Time is of essence for IA to act and recover its positions and push chinese back relentlessly...

    Being nice does not work with them...
    See what they did for USA from whom they derived all those riches...

    ReplyDelete
  30. It is not “Indian territory”. It is the disputed state of Kashmir. Indians should fuck off. Only we Kashmiris have the right to ask Chinese what they are doing in OUR territory.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Yes we must give a bloody nose to China.so they cannot think of misadventures with India in future. It's a rogue state that's why they tacitly support Pak and N Korea the two irresponsible Nations on earth.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Do the best to stand on the side to any invaders

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  33. China trying to erase Doklam humiliation.. but likely to suffer another!

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  34. The reason why this is dangerous is because india's defense budget is small but yet we are wasting money on tools that project force outside India's economic enclave.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Very true sir ....Our friends are quiet worried on the border the situations seems worst .
    From ladakh

    ReplyDelete
  36. This is a great opportunity for Modi to prove himself to the nation i.e. reclaiming the land that belongs to India. I have every faith that he will do.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I am sure and confident that Indian forces have adequate response for all such situations. It clearly shows that Chinese have realised that India is no more a young lad of society whom they can just threaten or coerce into acceptance. It is clear that Chinese have felt the treat from India and hence taking preventive actions. Author needs to give more details of where and how much infiltration has happened. It has been accepted by govt or any other media openly. Their presence in their claimed territory cant be controlled or governed by India. As they cant control ours. It seems to be natural reaction by a worried force or deceptive action as part of larger game to deny India get advantage in Anti China sentiments across globe.

    Wait and watch before making judgemental statement about forces, govt or country.

    ReplyDelete
  38. India fucked up by trying to gobble up Kashmir. Now it is a fair play. And if India and Pakistan join in then this game will become quite nasty.

    I hope cool heads prevail and at the end Kashmiri's, not India, Pakistan, or China decide the fate of the region.

    ReplyDelete
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  41. its really disturbing to see that Govt of India relies so much upon Chinese assertions of peace. History says there have always been a war when it was thought to be the most unlikely time to begin a war. Our forces claim to be always alert about protecting countries sovereignty and integrity and now they fail. BdW, what the heck was RAW doing, and our glorious MI? And how did these so called deal maker top politicians fail to anticipate Chinese activity? Why so afraid of 50 cents party and not make the Quad function properly. Idiots in our country won't even engage other enemies of China like Vietnam, Australia, Japan, US, not even on back-stage.Why the hell? Why? Our reputation is getting marred everyday and even in 2020, we even couldn't begin sea-trial of IAC1. Theft of computer parts from Aircraft carrier, theft attack at Paris Rafale office of IAF what the heck?... Our top-notch blockhead officials from intelligence agencies should resign today and enjoy their retired life peacefully with cocktail peg and family.

    ReplyDelete
  42. After the clash in Ladakh, CAIT calls for boycott China products. But how far is it possible to boycott China products?

    ReplyDelete
  43. This govt is only talks about religious points, hindu-muslim,and caa also its demonitization was failed.

    ReplyDelete

  44. India Plans to cut PRC imports

    https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-working-to-restrict-chinese-goods-investments-since-before-galwan-covid-officials/445017/

    This is all bunkum!

    If Chaiwala is serious - ban all PRC imports !

    Y hike import duty or impose ADD/CVD or use Safeguard Duty or Technical Barriers to Trade ? dindooohndoo

    That will add to Indian Input Costs,and bankrupt several industries,and then the banking !

    If PRC exports to India,are USD 100 Billion and duty is hiked by 20% - then 20 billion USD of profits,of Indian companies are gone.In addition,the supply chain of those user industries (of Chinese inputs),will also be wiped out,on upstream (suppliers of materials and inputs to Indian entities, which import Chinese materials) and downstream (users of Indian products made, from Chinese inputs) as they will either not offer cost reductions,or not absorb cost hikes !

    On a duty hike of 20%,on Chinese exports,to India of 100 Billion - at least 150-200 Billion USD of Indian entities will be destroyed - asssuming a material sales ratioj of 50%.Add to that the impact on the upstream and downstream supply chain - which is another 150-200 Billion USD.If 400 Billion USD of Indian sales are wiped out - it is safe to assume that the Debt to Sales ratio is say 0.25:1,and so USD 100 Billion of bank and other debt will be NPA.

    Then you come to the retail imports - phones,Tvs,Toys etc.That will wipe out the entire retail trade as INDIANS WILL NOT PAY HIGHER PRICES OF INDIAN SUPPLIES.That is disaster in the unorganised finance market - Nidhis/NBFCs/Chit Funds - all will go bust.This will also impact the unorganised working capital credit to SMEs.

    Y not also impose an Export tax on exports to PRC. Again a dead end - as PRC will import from elsewhere.

    Y not ban Chinese flag ships from Indian Ports - No problem - PRC will do the same from PRC and HK and some African Ports.

    Y not ban PRC from all infrastructure projects ? Sad ! All Indian Infra companies are bankrupt - including those making toilets !

    India needs PRC.

    PRC could short Indian paper and securities,in the NASDAQ/NYSE or short the INR,in the NDF or just kick out the Indians,from HKSAR - now PRC.It Could also kick out the Indians from many nations in Africa - Idi style ! I pray for Idi !

    It is certain that PRC will use the Taliban and Pakistan,based marine/maritime outfits - in the next phase.The Problem with the Indians,is that they THINK that they have the PRC jugular - In Malacca and the shallow waters,in the waterways,through Malacca,which can spot PRC Nuke Subs and Diesel Subs.

    Sweet Dreams are made of this !

    India has no options ! The PRC will now enter the whole of the North East

    India cannot handle Nepal - they could not stop them from changing a map - how will they handle PRC.Indians still have not perfected the art of making galvanised steel - how will they re-take Galwan ?

    Just handover Ladakh,Sikkim and Arunachal to the PRC

    And then back to Cow piss Cola !

    In the next phase,I expect PRC to use Tibetans in the PLA on the Indo-Chinese border and the Nepali midgets on the Indo-Nepal - to turn the Tibetans and Nepalis against India and Indians

    The Mongols are the master race of South and East Asia - that is a historical and scientific fact !

    ReplyDelete
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