One year after Galwan: what are China's gains over India - Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Stuff.

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Monday, 14 June 2021

One year after Galwan: what are China's gains over India

 

Assessment of India's tactical and strategic gains and drawbacks:

 

1.         China has forced India into an all-weather, militarised, hard deployment on a second live border. The two-front threat is now a reality as never before.

 

2.         China has taken away India’s option of launching a war on Pakistan without factoring in the likelihood of a Chinese military reaction.

 

3.         To deal with the new reality of two powerful enemies acting in cahoots, India will have to expand defence spending. Alternatively we will have to cut back funding for a maritime presence in the Indo-Pacific, to allocate funding to the Himalayan land border.

 

4.         India has been forced to accept foreign military help to defend its borders. US drones now watch over the LAC. India’s military reliance on the US is going to expand.

 

5.         China has forced India to cater for China’s likely reactions before building any roads or border infrastructure.

 

6.         China has demonstrated that the Indian government worries more about its image with domestic voters and less about losing territories. India has lost respect in the Third World and in SAARC.

 

7.         China has demonstrated that the Indian army works on political directives, with tactical imperatives taking a lower precedence.

 

8.         Despite boastful and threatening proclamations that it would move against Beijing’s exports and investments, Chinese companies such as Alibaba continue to invest in India. Exports from China to India were the highest ever last year. This sends out a global message that bluster takes precedence over hard action.

 

9.         By avoiding even a single strong statement on biological warfare by state actors, despite a crushing second wave, India has encouraged China to think of weaponizing a third wave.

 

10.       The non-investigation of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, such as recent intrusions on Powergrid, National Payments Corporation of India, encourages rogue state actors such as China to expand their activities without hindrance.

 

11.       China has kept India engaged in public border talks, even while gaining control over an estimated 1,000 square kilometres of Indian territory, China’s forked tongue strategy has now been tested in Ladakh, and in Doklam, Sikkim.




7 comments:

  1. Wondering why all Strategic Thinkers are silent on China surrounding the southern side of India! This seems even more cynical and dangerous.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/growing-chinese-shadow-in-tamil-nadus-backyard/articleshow/83493472.cms

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank u modi for destroying india u r a true ISI agent

    ReplyDelete
  3. The headline? Doklam or Galwan?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Near perfect summary of the implications of a year+ skirmishes with China

    ReplyDelete
  5. You can add, China has redrawn the LAC as per its perception and stopped India from patrolling from a number of locations in Eastern Ladakh.

    ReplyDelete
  6. But at one time auther himself described the lac as perception based line. So loosing 1000sq from where ? Should we not include Aksai chin and say lost 36000sqk.

    Manufacturing was neglected from years suddenly, one day we say we do it ourselves, No can't happen it takes several decades to build that level of manufacturing.

    Infrastructure in border areas neglected for several decades, and now sudden rush shows neglect since independence.

    With the setup n limitations we created for us for decades if we stopped China we should be happy about that.

    Did we ever had plans to attack Pakistan ? We never even retaliated and dreaming of attack in blogs

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  7. Just as you factor in the odds China has to factor in that our soldiers whenver challenged -Chusul Airstrip/Nathu La/Galwan- can cause shivers to the Chinese and that every Chinese soldier is a one child. 1962 ? It was so stupidly bungled I think it was a Leftist ( The Indian Government then was a puppet of teh Leftists) plot to abdicate and anoint China as the leader of Asia- which it did. Study the sequence of events form 1951 to 1959 to 1962. The Henderson Brooks report will neve be publishd because the Bureaucracy (ICS/IAS/IB would be damned. However We can beat Chinese ( but perhaps not our bureaucracy) and the Chinese know it.

    ReplyDelete

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