By Ajai Shukla
The Wire
29th September 2026
The outcome of any future war between India and Pakistan will depend, to a significant degree, on which of the two navies wrests control of the waters around the Indian peninsula – the Arabian Sea to the west, the Bay of Bengal to the east, and the Indian Ocean further south. To combat the larger and more capable Indian Navy, Pakistan has chosen a strategy of “sea denial” that will employ submarines and mine-layer vessels to bottle up India’s warship fleet inside its own harbours and naval bases.
The Pakistan Navy, in turn, will be confronted with India’s strategy of “sea control”, where India’s large aircraft carrier battle groups (CBGs), destroyers and frigates will operate together to apply India’s sea power far from its shores.
A critical factor in this naval contest will be the outcome of two ongoing procurements: New Delhi’s US$ 9-10 billion acquisition of six conventional submarines, equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP); and Islamabad’s $4-5 billion acquisition of eight Chinese Hangor-class, AIP-driven, conventional boats which Pakistan will operate from Karachi by 2030. Navies traditionally refer to submarines as “boats”.
While the Pakistan Navy’s submarine wing has already thrown its lot in with China, two warship-building consortia are competing fiercely for the Indian contract. The frontrunner is India’s premier warship builder, Mumbai-based Mazagon Dock Ltd (MDL), which is partnering German shipyard, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS).
Competing against the MDL-TKMS consortium is a naval-industrial conglomerate that has brought Spanish shipyard, Navantia, into partnership with Indian engineering giant, Larsen & Toubro (L&T).
These two consortia are competing not just on technology and cost comparisons; by most insider accounts, TKMS-MDL appears to have already won those battles. Raging now is a contest of perception, with both rivals having launched anonymous media campaigns that accuse each other of being unreliable allies, whom the Indian Navy cannot trust to safeguard the technologies, designs and industrial secrets that are central to submarine warfare.
TKMS accused of links with Pakistan
The first campaign, aimed squarely at the MDL-TKMS Indo-German consortium, accuses TKMS of being overly close to Turkiye and Pakistan. This allegation rests on the fact that TKMS is the prime contractor for the Turkish Navy’s project for building six Reis-class, Type 214 boats that are driven by AIP.
An AIP-equipped boat can operate submerged for up to two weeks, while a conventional submarine, powered by diesel-electric propulsion, must surface every 48-72 hours to charge its batteries. This provides AIP-equipped submarines with a critical advantage since surfaced submarines are vulnerable to detection by radar.
Cooperating closely with TKMS in building the Reis-class boats is Turkish defence company STM (Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik ve Ticaret A.Ş.), which is doing much of the high-end design and construction work. The Pakistan Navy dockyard in Karachi is also partnering STM, receiving technology and expertise for upgrading key systems such as fire control, sonar, electronic warfare, command and control, and data distribution.
STM of Turkiye is also the prime contractor for the Pakistan Navy’s programme for modernising and extending the life of its three Khalid-class Agosta 90B submarines. These boats, which can fire seaborne nuclear cruise missiles, were acquired by Pakistan from France.
HAVELSAN (Hava Elektronik Sanayii), another prominent Turkish defence company owned by the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation, builds data networks, simulators, and robotic operating software for Turkiye’s latest warships. Another Turkish firm, Aselan, is supplying torpedo countermeasures for Pakistan’s Agosta submarines.
French defence industry executives say India must beware of the Pakistan-China-Turkiye nexus. The danger lies not in the deliberate leakage of Indian naval technology to Pakistan or China. Rather, given Turkiye’s close defence links with Pakistan on the one hand, and Germany on the other, there is a risk of information convergence through personnel, subcontractors, software, common industrial partners, technical documentation, operational data, and life-cycle support.
TKMS counters charges
German naval company executives counter that Berlin has effectively ended all submarine cooperation with both Pakistan and China, having pivoted politically and strategically towards India. German technology denial to Pakistan is especially tight for AIP-driven propulsion systems and is enforced through a case-by-case vetting system.
Citing European Union’s arms embargo on military exports to China, Berlin has blocked the export to China of specialised 12V396 engines by German company MTU. These were to be fitted in the new Hangor-class submarines that China is building for Pakistan. This blockage is learned to have caused years of delay to that project.
TKMS’s only remaining presence in Turkiye relates to the Reis-class project, say German company executives. They point out that the six-submarine contract, which was signed in 2009, is legally binding on TKMS. Turkiye, however, is contractually blocked from re-exporting submarine technology received from Germany.
French weaponry to Pakistan
The pro-TKMS media campaign draws attention to Paris’ long-standing defence relations with Islamabad. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) bought 86 Dassault Mirage fighters, starting in the 1960s, which are still in service. In addition, the Pakistan Navy acquired five Agosta submarines from French shipbuilder, Naval Group, earlier known as DCNS. Of these, two are obsolete, 47-year-old, Agosta 70 boats while the other three are relatively modern Agosta 90B submarines, built 20-30 years ago and capable of being retro-fitted with AIP.
The stringent license conditions imposed by the French government ensure that Naval Group cannot provide even spares support to Pakistan’s submarine fleet. This has been the case since the killing of 12 French engineers in 2002 in a terrorist attack in Karachi.
In 2011, as strategic relations between New Delhi and Paris grew stronger and deeper, the French government officially halted all technical support, life-cycle upgrades, and spare parts supply for the PAF’s French-made Mirage fighter jets and the Pakistan Navy's Agosta submarines.
The French DGA (Directorate General of Armaments) has instituted specific policies, processes, methodologies and boundaries that circumscribe how French organizations and the defence sector interact with Pakistan.
Yet, inevitably, large weapons OEMs find ways to navigate even the strictest export laws. While the French DGA and export authorities block direct military transfers to Pakistan, defence contractors successfully utilize specific legal structures, alternative supply chains, and civilian classifications to supply dual-use technologies.
It remains a challenge for New Delhi to navigate between these competing interests.
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