India-China military talks deadlocked, winter deployment seems certain - Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Stuff.

Home Top Ad

Advertisement
Advertisement
ad-placeholder

Breaking



Wednesday, 14 October 2020

India-China military talks deadlocked, winter deployment seems certain

India's development of border infrastructure is “the root cause for the tension between the two sides”, declared Beijing on Tuesday 


By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 14th Oct 20

 

On Tuesday evening, New Delhi and Beijing signed off on a joint press release to describe the previous day’s talks between senior military commanders of the two sides, in which there was no agreement to disengage or de-escalate.

 

All that the joint release on the seventh round of talks at Chushul could claim was a “sincere, in-depth and constructive exchange of views on disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)… [which] had enhanced understanding of each other’s positions.”

 

In fact, after six previous rounds of talks that began in early June, both sides already had a complete understanding of each other’s positions, which remained unchanged from the preceding sixth round held on September 21.

 

India’s core demand remains a troop pull-back by China to the positions both sides held in April before the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) trespassed across the LAC in the Galwan, Hot Springs, Pangong Tso and Depsang sectors.

 

China’s position, on the other hand, remains that it would only discuss any pull back by the PLA after the Indian Army vacates the tactically dominating positions it had occupied south of Pangong Tso lake at the end of August.

 

Suggesting a hardening of stands, Tuesday’s media release is silent on concrete steps to mitigate the confrontation. The September 21 statement had resolved to “strengthen communication on the ground, avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments, stop sending more troops to the frontline, refrain from unilaterally changing the situation on the ground, and avoid taking any actions that may complicate the situation.”

 

In the absence of any tactical agreements, Tuesday’s media release, like the September 21 statement, adopted a standard Chinese formulation: “Both sides agreed to earnestly implement the important understandings reached by the leaders of the two countries, not to turn differences into disputes, and jointly safeguard peace and tranquility in the border areas.”

 

As of now, it is unclear whether any utility is seen in an eighth round of military-to-military talks. While the September 21 statement had “agreed to hold the 7th round of military commander-level meeting as soon as possible”, Tuesday’s joint release only “agreed to maintain dialogue and communication through military and diplomatic channels.” 

 

Credible China analysts do not see any “give” in Beijing’s position. Yun Sun of the Washington DC-based Stimson Centre believes New Delhi is missing some fundamental aspects of the strategic personality of Chinese president Xi Jinping.

 

“I don’t think Xi ever got over the 2017 Doklam standoff and China's loss of face, [notwithstanding] the abrupt, unnatural and artificially engineered ‘rapprochement’ between Xi and Modi at Wuhan (2018) and Chennai (2019). Xi's style is to gain face back where he lost it, so the event this year, and China's surprising aggressiveness has been brewing for the past three years,” says Sun. 

 

Sun believes Beijing is reconciled to having India as a strategic adversary. “Many Chinese feel that they never ‘had’ India to begin with. The mutual distrust and embedded hostility in the society and in the policy-making circles has led to an understanding that India was never China's friend or partner. This forms an interesting contrast to the Indian perception that China betrayed India,” she says.

As winter takes hold in the mountains of Eastern Ladakh, the failure of disengagement talks means the new frontlines are being frozen, figuratively as well as literally. The Indian Army has matched the PLA’s induction of 35,000-50,000 additional troops to hold the front lines through winter. A logistics race is underway to provide both armies the ammunition, living shelters, food and, above all, heating fuel to enable soldiers to survive at temperatures of minus 20 degrees Centigrade, which is effectively lowered by another 30 degrees by the wind chill factor.


44 comments:

  1. India's borders were secure during the 10 years of the coalition government led by Manmohan Singh, who understood how to deal with China. We should only develop border infrastructure that we can adequately defend. The Modi government's foreign policy overreach for domestic political gains ("muscular" policy towards Pakistan, aggressive patrolling, border infrastructure development close to the LAC, abrogation of Article 370, breakup of J&K, rash statements by BJP politicians that Aksai Chin and PoK will be taken back) has cost India dearly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UPA did nothing in last 10 years before Modi,except sit on files.Modi accelerated projects.Dont forget Nehru is cause of Kashmir problem,not Modi.First read facts in history,dont talk like a bloody fool.

      Delete
    2. You should have some patriotism. You are trusting China more than Modi.sad.

      Delete
    3. Hilarious comment. What Manmohan and Congress did was to keep quiet and allow Chinese to eat away Indian Territory. Now an Indian govt is showing spine and will to stand up to Chinese bullying.

      Delete
    4. I think its better to take a long view. Hope u understand that chinese ccp...has a 50 year plan. To lead the world. To dominate Asia. May I state a fact, India has much scientists , r&d, experience in last 70 years. We do not make knock offs . Hope u get the drift. So rising india is a threat. Now tell me, pok, gilgit baltistan....were a part of j & k...so how come chinese can make statements similar to indias we stake a claim from 18 century...is china special...no sir. China has teamed up with pakistan to bleed us from both sides. Forgive me for saying so, Mr former pm m singh had no back bone, to stand against his slave mistress...s g. Please sir we r not door mats. Pm n.m had reached out to china several times to reduce tensions...but belligerent egotistical chinese rulers of the fantasy world....sir please. Dont be biased in ur opinion cause u support 1 party...I support the idea india, its poor people the most....congress has had the helm for many years..did they uplift the poor. No. Did they keep security up front ..no. what did they do ? Bowed n scraped to china...modi did it too..but modi saw the futility of his actions..so he changed his stance & his focus from victim to violator..
      D

      Delete
    5. That was an utter non sense and laughable when you Manmohan govt. It is because of this useless and visionless Manmohan govt which has not done a wee bit on border infrastructure which led us to suffer. Pls go check the facts on when and what pace the border infrastructure have built.

      Delete
    6. Question. How can we defend our borders if we don't have border infrastructure?
      The congress rule was nothing but basically playing in the favor of China in international matters to keep them happy

      Delete
    7. Why not just say 'crawl and grovel'?

      Delete
    8. Modi is a game changer, needed this approach as indian territory has already been taken under control by China from starting. China due to indias border infrastructure is getting pissed off. China is not entertaining india in any front, motivated Pakistan for terrorism in India. This need to come to a conclusion one day. However they started late, and arms and war weapon should have been regularly considered by defense forces should be procured.

      Delete
  2. The only way to settle this chin pak dante is to provide AMERICAN NAVY LANDING RIGHTS IN MUMBAI CHENNAI AND VIZAG

    NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT CARRIER LIKE RONALD REAGAN WILL ONLY MAKE THEN SEE SENSE

    FURTHER NAVAL BLOCKADE OF KARACHI IS BEST CARRIED OUT BY US NUCLEAR FLEET

    ReplyDelete
  3. Col Ajay Shukla, is brilliant, excellent, Frank, honest, brave, courageous, unbiased, does v well researched Article S always consistent. Most unfortunate that many many viewers audience r emotional, spit venom, r stupid to comment on the against him personally rather praise or criticise on merits of the write up. Our Armed forces are v brave, exceelent, even fight with obsolete weapons, low resources, less quality of trng. Not adequate weapons arms Ammunition. Our IAS Beaurucracy, Political top leadership self serving so much so that it's factual that despite lose of 1000 Sq Kms ladakh area to China since April till now our leader has refused to even Name and blame China. कोई आया नहीं, कोई है नहीं, is our Army posted in our own area fighting Pakistanis?? Why b so scared to lose the self serving opportunity but masquerading Nation first? Jai Jawan, jai kissan, jai Bharat, long live our Armed forces n honest citizens of India

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not even proper food & also untouchability in army !!! Shame

      Delete
  4. Time to push back the Chinese.Free Tibet and Aksai Chin.

    ReplyDelete
  5. HOW CHINA CAN CLAIM LADAKH WHEN DRAGON IS AN AGGRESSOR COUNTRY WHO CAPTURED TIBET BY FORCE AND CREATED BORDER DISPUTE WITH INDIA WHICH IS TOTALLY ILLEGAL & FALSE ?CHINA MUST RESTORE STATUS QUO OF 1950 WHEN TIBET WAS AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY WHICH WAS SUBSEQUENTLY ANNEXED BY EXPANSIONIST & AGGRESSIVE CHINA LATER ON. INDIA HAD COMMON BORDER WITH TIBET BEFORE 1950. SO THERE IS NO QUESTION OF ANY BORDER DISPUTE BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA WHICH HAS NO RIGHT TO CLAIM AN INCH OF INDIAN TERRITORY. THIS FIRM STAND SHOULD BE TAKEN BY INDIA. IN THE MEAN TIME A RESOLUTION SHOULD BE MOVED IN UNITED NATION AGAINST CHINA BY MEMBER COUNTRIES TO VACATE TIBET IMMEDIATELY. OTHERWISE ALL UN MEMBER COUNTRIES WILL BOYCOTT ALL CHINESE GOODS TILL TIBET IS VACATED & MADE INDEPENDENT FROM OCCUPATION OF CHINA. THIS IS MUST TO TAME CHINA FOR FUTURE FROM FURTHER AGGRESSIVE AND EXPANSIONIST POLICY ADOPTED BY DRAGON IN FUTURE WHO HAS NOW FORCIBLY OCCUPIED 31% OF OTHER COUNTRIES TERRITORIES BY MERGING IN CHINESE TERRITORY BY ANNEXING TERRITORIES OF OTHER NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. THE SAME PRACTICE IS NOW MADE APPLICABLE AGAINST INDIA BY INVADER CHINA TODAY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They think that we are all 'barbarians'

      Delete
    2. What about Nepal ??? Leave aside Tibet !!!

      Delete
  6. THE CHINESE HAVE BEEN DOING THAT FOR DECADES! MENTION THAT YOU 'EXPERT' 🤦‍♂️😡

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Experts are devided into two: cong_Bjp, not on the basis of nationalism

      Delete
  7. Only because of China's greedy programs of expansion India has to develop I frastructure in Ladakh. These crooks wanted to grab indian lands and achieved it during Congress Regine. Because of Congress party agreement with Chinese crook party, Congress slliwedchina to grab indian lands silently. Now India is being ruled by a iron Man called Mr Modi. So the development bring made by Modi along the border to check the expansion ambition of crooks is irking the Chinese. One thing is sure that as long as Mr Modi is in power, China cannot grab even an inch and if it dares to do so, then it will have to face the director consequences and China will be a great looser. China mayboadt about it's vast technology development in the past years but all r in vain when it faces militarily with India. China must know that India is not Pakistan to bow before them. We are lions and will eat dragon fully.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Chinese troops are forced conscripts;have little ir none patriotism. The Indian troops take pride in protecting the nation

      Delete
  8. Destabilization, coercion, and invasion are communist chinese signature from the Himalayas border conflict, Mekong River draining by chinese dams, to the South East Asian Sea SEAS aka SCS illegitimate claims, china must be stopped.
    It's high time to liberate all chinese occupied sovereign nations from Nepal,Tibet, East Turkistan, Southern Mongolia, Manchuria, and Yunan Indochina, Macau and Hong Kong, fact, they don't share the same culture, language, and heritage with chin mandarin of Beijing. There are no one billion chinese speakers, another false claim of inflated chinese flatulence. StumpChin.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Liberate chinese occupied sovereign nations from Nepal, Tibet, East Turkistan, South Mongolia, Manchuria, Yunan Indochina, Macau and Hong Kong, drive the chin mandarin communist to Beijing. These sovereign nations don't share the same heritage, culture, and language. There is no such thing as one billion chinese speakers, it's just another chinese claim of fame nothing but flatulence and false.

    ReplyDelete
  10. It's my firm belief during peak of winter , Indian army will push back offensively, but not attacking China, only limited push back. PM Modi too is hell bent teaching China a lesson of life, that's why he has made statements like "aakh uthakar, aakh zukakar" we worship Krishna with basuri as well as with Sudarshan chakra, His visit to border was an early warning sign to China.
    This winter Indian army which is battle hardened & has experience in mountain warfare, March ahead to teach Chinese " cost of betrayal. Patriotic emotions make a man/ soldier will, well determined, that's not case with Chinese soldiers, they are worshipping Xi jinping, there no o element of patriotism to hence they will more worried about escaping from conflict at its peak. That's not with Indian soldier, Bharat mata ki jai, they are obsessed with pride to lay their life for Bharat mata.

    Shuklaji, you are more expert, what do you think? Battles are won with determination & not with only arms & ammunition.

    ReplyDelete
  11. These treacherous Chinese should taught lessons, as India always believed in panchasheel dialogues, The expansionist attitude of Chinese bully attitude must taught firm hand, it should be declared as roughue country along with Pakistan both are detrimental to Asian countries development.

    ReplyDelete
  12. India alongside other Democracies should take on to china and settle the border dispute forcibly. India can't do it alone.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Wow., china can go for infrastructure developed in its area but it will decide what India shoud dobin its. Idiots... It's not 62. If you want to shoot ,, shoot don't talk and see the result

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ajay Shukla Ji always makes realistic assessment in my view.

    ReplyDelete
  15. India's borders were never secure during congress govts. In fact, they did not have the guts to effectively deal with China. Instead, they kept calm due to which China has been encroaching our lands till date. The same they did during this govts tenure but got a reply. Taking back aksaichin, pok is other question where the enemy has built infrastructures on it and has been claiming it as its part.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Building infrastructure Roads, continuous petrolling in LAC , support from USA can only india has to do.

    ReplyDelete
  17. India needs to develop to challenge china in all fields including economy, technology and capabilities. Else it will be a talk only. We may not require to push if we are strong enough as our adversaries will themselves vacate the positions wrongfully occupied by them.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Jammmu and. Kashmir had prime minister

    ReplyDelete
  19. Sheikh Abdullah was first prime minister of Jammu kashmir

    ReplyDelete
  20. India is more powerful than chineese infantry

    ReplyDelete
  21. Maharaja Gulab singh was first Dogra ruler of state

    ReplyDelete
  22. All views mostly shaikh Chilly views!!!
    Someone say US should help, democracies should help, UN should help & so on !!!
    If everyone will help then what for we are maintaining such a huge army at the cost of poors of India even below the level of Bangladesh !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fully agree bro, These people have nothing to show in terms of results. Every expert know, we are begging chinese to go back.

      This fekugiri by these people goes unchallenged because of weak opposition and paid media. But China don't care about our bluff master.

      Delete
  23. Super India Jai Modi Jay Shri Ram

    ReplyDelete
  24. India kept on building up forces in the border areas since 2009. In 2009-10 two new divisions were raised in the Northeast. Since 2014, the raising of a Mountain Strike Corps is a work in progress. China did not increase forces up to the same time period up to 2017. And after 2017, only a modest increase. What did India expect from its unilateral buildup? The current situation has been years in the making and was instigated by India's aggressive actions.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I have a fear that China is biding its time until winter or January to take further aggressive action.

    For sure, the emerging "quad" alliance will have given China pause, but it also knows that come November, the US will enter disarray with probably the most troubled elections in recent history, and the potential change in administrations in January is also likely to be fraught with problems.

    When the US is occupied looking inwards, they're less likely to help outwards, particularly in India where they don't have as much strategic concerns as they do in the Pacific. And with that posture from the US, the other two members of the quad (Japan and Australia) will also not want to antagonize China given their respective concerns are the Japanese Archipelago and the South China Sea.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I read all shakish chilly comments of my Indian fallow they thoughts Mr.Moodi is iron man and game changer, no doubt he chage the game and created Bangladash with our (Pakistan), wish. There are long-term planing and policy of Pakistan Establishment.
    Now I am given some tips for my Indian fellows. Please wait to esrablish an important Province I.e Gil.Baltistan and remember to considerhow many Muslims are living in India they are all Mujahideen just like Taliban against the American with all European union Armies with latest and Modern Air And Land defence. So far sufficient for BJP.

    ReplyDelete
  27. If I were India, I would start a war with China immediately. As a former soldier, I would much prefer die in a battle than freeze to death...

    ReplyDelete
  28. In US,Joe Biden is winning . This talk of quad and all is just non sense.
    As a country, we are isolated in south asia itself.
    So, we just know how to do headline management for domestic politics nothing else.

    ReplyDelete

Recent Posts

Untitled%2Bdesign
Untitled%2Bdesign
Page 1 of 10412345...104Next >>Last