By Ajai Shukla
Israel has demonstrated through its relentless bombing campaign of Iran-linked targets that it would accept no restraints in protecting what it regards as its legitimate security interests. Meanwhile, the US has made clear the limits on its security guarantees to its West Asian allies. In this new security landscape, three key players – Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad – came together on Friday to sign a mutual defence pact.
Titled the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement”, this marks a shift away from the US security umbrella and towards greater self-reliance, where regional powers cooperate to guarantee their own stability rather than depending on an unreliable superpower ally.
This landmark pact borrows elements of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) charter, including from its historic collective security clause. Both treaties mandate that an armed attack against any one of their member-countries will be regarded as an attack against them all. However, there has been no clarification from Brussels (NATO headquarters) or Ankara on how they will reconcile their collective security responsibilities under the Atlantic Charter, with simultaneous responsibilities that may arise from the Mecca Agreement. For example, if Israel strikes a Saudi nuclear fuel enrichment facility, Turkiye will be required by the Mecca Agreement to respond to such an attack on its treaty ally. If that leads to hostilities between Turkey and Israel, will the 32 NATO countries be treaty bound to militarily support their treaty partner, Turkiye, against Israel? Such a matrix of interlocking military alliances triggered World War 1; it would be odd if this blunder were to be repeated.
The Mecca Agreement brings together important strengths of three Asian power centres. First, a South Asian declared nuclear power, Pakistan, contributes a powerful conventional military and a functional nuclear arsenal, though it is unclear whether Islamabad has offered a nuclear umbrella. Of the two West Asian powers: Saudi Arabia provides political and financial clout as leader of the Sunni world and controller of the world’s largest oil reserves. Finally, Turkiye, the successors of the Ottoman empire, brings in a powerful military and a highly capable defence industry that can boast of having recently developed battle-tested weapons systems such as the Bayraktar TB2 strike drone.
The unstated targets of the Mecca Agreement allies are the other two West Asian power centres: Iran, leader of the Shia world, which includes Houthi-controlled Yemen, large chunks of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and capable proxy groups such as the Hizballah and Hamas. The other regional target of the Mecca allies is military and intelligence powerhouse and undeclared nuclear power, Israel. Also, missing from the picture is political and cultural idol, Egypt; it is likely to come on board soon.
Much of this is old wine in a new bottle. Pakistan has provided military training and technical assistance to the Saudi Arabian defence forces for decades. In September 2025, Riyadh and Islamabad signed a bilateral “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement”, which has evolved with the participation of Ankara into the trilateral Mecca Agreement. Last May, Pakistan deployed some 8,000 troops, a squadron of JF-17 fighter aircraft, drones and HQ-9 air defence systems to Saudi Arabia. Riyadh, in turn, has repeatedly provided financial bail-outs to Islamabad at times of economic stress. Turkiye and Pakistan have exchanged warships and training aircraft. In 2023, Riyadh agreed to buy Turkish drones in what Ankara called its largest defence export contract.
India’s foreign ministry says it is tracking the situation carefully. It must do so, given Pakistan’s long Cold War record of hitching its wagon to pacts, alliances and treaties in order to oblige western governments, with the onward aim of deriving geo-political advantage against India. In 1954, Pakistan obliged the US and six American allies by joining the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (Seato), ostensibly to act as a regional bulwark against the spread of communism. In fact, Pakistan joined Seato to obtain advanced weaponry and economic aid from America for the struggle against India for Jammu and Kashmir. Then, in 1955, Pakistan again played Cold War geo-politics by joining the Central Treaty Organisation (Cento, or the Baghdad Pact) in order to obtain Washington’s support against India. In the current scenario, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye are piggybacking on Pakistan in seeking a bigger strategic role in Asia, especially to challenge India’s ambition of leading the global south.
Similar motivations are probably driving Pakistan’s current play in West and South Asia, including its initiative to mediate a peace dialogue between Washington and Teheran, and now, its high-profile role in the Mecca Agreement. There is little need for Islamabad to raise the ante in this manner; since 2019-2020, when the Chinese military intruded into Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh, New Delhi has taken a number of steps to de-escalate military tensions with Rawalpindi. The Indian Army has converted a 60,000-man strike corps that was configured for the terrain on the India-Pakistan border into a mountain strike corps configured for the China border. Two more mountain divisions raised in the last two decades were assigned entirely to the China border. Whereas 70% of the Indian Army was once earmarked for the Pakistan border, only about 55% is today. Pakistan’s West Asia initiative, therefore, provides an opening for Indian diplomacy to use the changing military balance on the Indo-Pakistan border as a springboard for further de-escalation.
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