tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post3507979961599145824..comments2024-03-29T05:44:18.835-07:00Comments on Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Defence.: "Figures will not lie": A personal profile of nuclear whistleblower, K SanthanamBroadswordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13076780076240598482noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-45094271285471665112009-10-10T21:53:13.488-07:002009-10-10T21:53:13.488-07:00The first use scenario as I understand it, in the ...The first use scenario as I understand it, in the Himalayan theatre, is a sub-kiloton blast in the mountains on the Indian side. This would not constitute a nuclear strike but would severely hamper any movement by land. A 20kT strike on Beijing or Shanghai means that it is all over and the balloons have gone up.Ibn al-Dunyahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03341047642226337916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-31777740237527879212009-10-05T21:37:05.478-07:002009-10-05T21:37:05.478-07:00To Anon 01 Oct 2009 16:28
Mr. Santhanam worked da...To Anon 01 Oct 2009 16:28<br /><br />Mr. Santhanam worked day night with people and institution that knows much more that average guys like us about the nuclear strategy and our requirements. Stop alleging anyone who deserve honour not you childish questions.Spirit of Exuberancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12533811143517193329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-38009705686968586052009-10-05T14:43:16.865-07:002009-10-05T14:43:16.865-07:00Between 20kT and 3000kT you can only have Mutually...Between 20kT and 3000kT you can only have Mutually Assured Asymmetric Destruction (MAAD). <br /><br />Forget the deterrence, such asymmetry in capability shows that only we will be deterred from using it because if we do then dragon has a several times bigger hammer to use on us.<br /><br />It will FORCE a No First Use policy on India even if it is conventionally overwhelmed and territorial integrity is at stake.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-46500231339638490422009-10-05T05:02:27.312-07:002009-10-05T05:02:27.312-07:00Fighterclass,
The first and only times nuclear we...Fighterclass,<br /><br />The first and only times nuclear weapons were used was almost 65 years ago. And they've never been employed ever since. For all their military might and buildup the superpowers never engaged in direct conflict. There is more than conclusive evidence about the deterrence capacity of nuclear weapons.<br /><br />Yes a grand total of two 20kt weapons is an extremely limited arsenal. Fortunately, India's stockpile reads in triple figures. <br /><br />Two 20kt nukes just over Beijing on the other hand isn't something China would take casually vis-a-vis a thermonuclear weapon employed against its capital.<br /><br />As things stand India's nuclear stockpile is sufficient or atleast will be sufficient for minimum deterrence against China and Pakistan. Thermonuclear weapons while desirable are not absolutely essential to having a credible deterrent.<br /><br />With regard to Mr. Santhanam's esteemed credentials, he's been rebuffed by people with better ones. He's speaking over a decade after the event. He wants more nuclear tests yet is a supporter of the Indo-US nuclear accord. <br /><br />And it doesn't require a doctorate and access to privileged information to deduce that in a the event of a nuclear exchange between India and China, there will be no winners.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14157477142062644931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-5354965574495602402009-10-04T13:20:37.617-07:002009-10-04T13:20:37.617-07:00vivek, if deterrence philosophy was that simple na...vivek, if deterrence philosophy was that simple nations would not have spent millions funding game theorists and security experts to determine the outlines of a country's nuclear deterrence.<br /><br />what santhanam is saying in the "knees" statement is that 2 20kt bombs does not constitute a minimum credible deterrence vis-a-vis china.<br /><br />what I find amazing is that people who have absolutely no experience of dealing with these matters which are among the most closely guarded in the world have the arrogance to call someone like K Santhanam ignorant.<br /><br />sorry, if you weren't a part of an establishment you simply don't know enough to pass an opinion either way.<br /><br />there is no "credible" freelance expert as far as the field of nuclear deterrence is concerned. people should stop deluding themselves that they understand it. they don't, they can't without being privy to all the information.fighterclassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-36344481044495659902009-10-04T12:10:30.234-07:002009-10-04T12:10:30.234-07:00blunder mistake by these scientists why cant they ...blunder mistake by these scientists why cant they ask for retesting in 1998 itself by revealing it now they are making fun of country and security <br /><br />or is this a politically involved stunt to help either congress or bjp <br /><br />whether it is right or wrong these fellows became decoitsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-22098737042121716382009-10-04T10:37:48.803-07:002009-10-04T10:37:48.803-07:00Broadsword,
I'm not familiar with it and bein...Broadsword,<br /> I'm not familiar with it and being a retired army officer, I'm sure you would have studied it at some point. Could you tell us why Mr. Santhanam isn't liable for prosecution under the Officials Secrets Act?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14157477142062644931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-10981124397262180502009-10-04T04:57:28.389-07:002009-10-04T04:57:28.389-07:00Broadsword,
I'm no nuclear expert but know to...Broadsword,<br /><br />I'm no nuclear expert but know to some degree the complexities of nuclear science, research and testing. <br /><br />Anyway, what was the counter argument to Santhanam by Chidambram? From what I understand, he claims that the more credible data and evaluations still indicate that it was a success and Santhanam was using tectionic data alone to support his argument. <br /><br />As far as I know, radiochemical methods are taken as most accurate by western nations which I'm inclined to agree with more. <br /><br />Could you also shed more light on the counter points raised by GoI? That way, we can have a more objective analysis.Parthnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-77103121984060710542009-10-04T02:51:53.527-07:002009-10-04T02:51:53.527-07:00We're not talking about when the report was &q...We're not talking about when the report was "released". When the hell was this report "released" anyway, and to whom?<br /><br />The report was submitted (not released) and it was done days, not months, after the tests.Broadswordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13076780076240598482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-44687016530656127702009-10-04T02:22:34.175-07:002009-10-04T02:22:34.175-07:00Broadsword
As per other media outlet, the DRDO re...Broadsword<br /><br />As per other media outlet, the DRDO report in question was released after 6 months. Can you confirm whether it is within days after test as you stated or 6 months down the line?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-50132193427723061482009-10-03T07:58:49.488-07:002009-10-03T07:58:49.488-07:00Terminator, you can terminate your angst.
Santhan...Terminator, you can terminate your angst.<br /><br />Santhanam submitted a 50-page report to the Government of India, just days after the test, giving his opinion that the fusion test had not achieved its aims.<br /><br />Don't you read the newspapers? Even the GoI has accepted that.<br /><br />Ranajeet, you clearly don't how a fusion reaction is initiated. Just to enlighten you, a fission reaction is first initiated to create the conditions of temperature and pressure that are needed for initiating a fusion reaction. That means about 20 KT. If the fusion reaction is successfully initiated, it can be scaled to 50KT or 200 KT with equal ease.Broadswordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13076780076240598482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-24019783979863740982009-10-02T14:57:39.755-07:002009-10-02T14:57:39.755-07:00This just shows how poorly our nuke tests were des...This just shows how poorly our nuke tests were designed:<br />1) why did they just blow 1 fusion bomb, when they knew that no other country has succeeded in getting it right the first time?!<br />2) Why did they just design a 50kt bomb- when its very near the capacity of a fission bomb - so it wont be easy to distinguish, why not a 200kt bomb? <br />3) they should have known the next day, if the bomb gave a 50kt bomb yield (just look at the shaft!!) so if the shaft was still there, why didnt they have a back-up fusion bomb with a different design and yield.<br /><br />just the testing skills leave at lot to be desired!!<br /><br />in any case, i hope people at barc are still working on fusion research, not sitting on the failed explosion!108researchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08618025574546493830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-93242668058136252009-10-02T14:08:47.014-07:002009-10-02T14:08:47.014-07:00Fighterclass,
Well Mr. Santhanam seems ignorant o...Fighterclass,<br /><br />Well Mr. Santhanam seems ignorant of the fact that nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent. Even if you don't possess them and your adversary thinks you do, purpose is solved. <br /><br />Question isn't whether India has a functioning thermonuclear weapon or not, question is why the hell did he feel obliged to speak to the media. Any questions, doubts or declarations to be made should have been made to the government through secure channels.<br /><br />And when he says 'couple of 20kt nuke wouldn't bring China to its knees' the assumption is that India needs or wants to bring China down to its knees. Why? We need to have a deterrent big enough to make any nuclear exchange a lose-lose situation for both parties, and that's it. <br /><br />No country with a rational stable leadership will ever order the launch of a nuclear weapon and fortunately both India and China have reasonable and sensible governments.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14157477142062644931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-66560654677637214462009-10-02T09:17:05.884-07:002009-10-02T09:17:05.884-07:00Well, do we want a small 20kT deterrent, or a MAD ...Well, do we want a small 20kT deterrent, or a MAD level nuclear deterrent? :-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-84358691419578558562009-10-02T07:56:58.001-07:002009-10-02T07:56:58.001-07:00With all due respect to Mr. Santhanam, why has he ...With all due respect to Mr. Santhanam, why has he only brought up this serious matter to light now and not immediately after the nuclear tests?<br /><br />Was he in deep slumber or wasn't he aware of the seriousness of the fizzle?<br /><br />As a scientist and patriot he should have taken it up with the powers of the day, albeit in a more scrupulous way instead of declaring it openly to the whole world.<br /><br />Did he think of the consequences? What if the Pakis, having some nuclear bombs and also having access to the Chinese arsenal of thermonuclear bombs decide to up the ante?<br /><br />When India's sworn enemies are in possession of thermonuclear bombs in megatons, it is imperative that India should not be satisfied with 20kt or even 40kt fission bombs.<br /><br />What the GOI and the other scientists are doing is just damage control. Hope it does not stay at that.<br /><br />Instead of just being satisfied with simulated explosions and data based on that, they should think of stratejies to circumvent the ban on testing.<br /><br />The Pakis are at a advantage because they can always get any number of proven bomb designs from China if they can assure the Chinese that the bombs are only to annihilate the dreaded yindoos.<br /><br />China would readily oblige because they do not have to dirty their hands when they have a dumb proxy.<br /><br />India had survived 30 years of American sponsored sanctions when it was a poor country. Now that it is rich and a fast developing country, America and their sleeping partners would have to think twice before they rashly come up with sanctions and technology denials.<br /><br />However, are simulated thermonuclear explosions accurate?<br />Since they are projections and predictions based on scientific calculations, can't our scientists devise a foolproof way of simulated detonations and arrive at tangible and correct data?<br /><br />Hope GOI and our scientists do not let us down.the terminatornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-82333502129899328862009-10-02T00:16:40.444-07:002009-10-02T00:16:40.444-07:00vivek, k santhanam is not just a scientist who is ...vivek, k santhanam is not just a scientist who is ignorant about the real world.<br /><br />he was an official in R&AW and was responsible for building from scratch India's database on paki nukes.<br /><br />he knows what he is saying, more than most of us here at any rate.fighterclassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-6754980760361948962009-10-01T21:06:08.907-07:002009-10-01T21:06:08.907-07:00to anon 16:28.
" Which country in the world c...to anon 16:28.<br />" Which country in the world can shrug off even a 1Kn nuke falling on any of it's neighbourhoods? Talk sense old man! I think we have enough deterrent already." No we don't. Why do you think all the nuclear powers have a larger stockpile of fusion bombs ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-65938793890671799972009-10-01T20:53:19.456-07:002009-10-01T20:53:19.456-07:00By Mr. Anonymous
I think Mr. Santhanam and curren...By Mr. Anonymous<br /><br />I think Mr. Santhanam and current goverment officials are all telling the truth. I can't think of a good reason why anyone of them would lie about such serious matter. However, I think one set of people are misinformed and/or uninformed. Since Gov. officials are the ones with all of the true data of Pokhran II, I think Mr. Santhanam is the misinformed and/or uninformed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-37661530361330050512009-10-01T19:34:08.668-07:002009-10-01T19:34:08.668-07:00Irrespective what other countries have, we need to...Irrespective what other countries have, we need to have a deterrent capability of at least 20MT. How about India testing one on the surface of the moon or mars.karupaswamynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-50289118279753705922009-10-01T14:03:12.502-07:002009-10-01T14:03:12.502-07:00Mr. Santhanam may be knowledgeable with regard to ...Mr. Santhanam may be knowledgeable with regard to nuclear research, but fortunately he doesn't have to be consulted when India's nuclear policy is being designed. That sort of important stuff is best left to people who know their jobs as well as know when to keep their traps shut.<br /><br />I hope someone enlightens Mr. Santhanam, that nuclear weapons are never meant to be used. They are there for deterrence. And when one scientist shoots his mouth off to the media, he's not doing his country any favours.(BTW does anyone know why he isn't bound by the Official Secrets Act?)<br /><br />With regard to China, shrugging off a 20 kt nuke over Beijing and Shanghai... today's China isn't Mao's China fortunately. Over the last two decades they've shown more foresight than any other major developing country. If you believe they will just throw away decades of progress over Tawang and Aksai Chin, congratulations you are now a jingoist fanatic.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14157477142062644931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-43776911375034449832009-10-01T13:02:09.250-07:002009-10-01T13:02:09.250-07:00Actually, blocking of all sea trade routs around t...Actually, blocking of all sea trade routs around the Indian Ocean will bring china to its knees.<br />So,if our goi takes direct actions to strong our Indian Navy ,take advantages of our geological position(impossible for dragon to stop our trade throughout the west coast),set up a huge network of air-defence system throughout our major cities,economic sectors & raise our mountain division in urgent bassis, we will be abled to save our motherland from the fireball of chinese dragon.ABHINABAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07443826784908284383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-18649447844827562642009-10-01T12:30:19.599-07:002009-10-01T12:30:19.599-07:00One ought to remember what MAO said once in regard...One ought to remember what MAO said once in regards to taking a few nukes to achieve a greater goal. <br /> I agree with Dr.Santhanam as to his saying that one 20kt nuke over bejing would not help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-18947084433557161842009-10-01T09:23:50.905-07:002009-10-01T09:23:50.905-07:00All those comments talking about 20 kiloton being ...All those comments talking about 20 kiloton being good enough need to realize that there is a reason why all major powers have >1 megaton nukes. <br />And for your info, Hiroshima and Nagasaki are still live cities, not evacuated locked up heritage sites. Small damage is not enough damage. Especially when countering an un-democratic country which does not succumb to mild pressures from people. Only a HUGE pressure from its own people will cause the dragon to desist. Only Fusion can guarantee that dragon will not ignore us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-59929528166127548922009-10-01T08:14:09.612-07:002009-10-01T08:14:09.612-07:00Ajai, The institute you mentioned is not Arbonne N...Ajai, The institute you mentioned is not Arbonne National Laboratory. It is Argonne National Laboratory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-65660649730319754232009-10-01T07:37:49.713-07:002009-10-01T07:37:49.713-07:00China is country which can kill (In their opinion ...China is country which can kill (In their opinion "sacrifice") millions of its own people, e.g. Great Leap Forward.<br /><br />That is why 20-kiloton bomb isn't enough.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com