tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post211924766584444404..comments2024-03-29T08:47:08.046-07:00Comments on Broadsword by Ajai Shukla - Strategy. Economics. Defence.: Army claim of active LoC belied by J&K government figuresBroadswordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13076780076240598482noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-75767043913851298372013-01-26T14:50:59.011-08:002013-01-26T14:50:59.011-08:00I must say i'm disappointed Col. Shukla is tal...I must say i'm disappointed Col. Shukla is talking like this. Used to be a fan. Man you sold out bigtime or have lost your marbles completely comparing apples and oranges. Even a civilian like me can see that increased ceasefire violations being caught means there has been an improvement in patrolling on the Indian side and hence the corresponding reduction in militant activity in J&K. Surprising that an army man would read these statistics the way Col. Shukla did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-65806609814738505932013-01-26T05:41:44.810-08:002013-01-26T05:41:44.810-08:00Mr Shukla,
You don't seem to explain why the ...Mr Shukla,<br /><br />You don't seem to explain why the Army will fudge the figures of Cease fire violations. Also what in your view is the threshold of killings to say that militancy has reduced. My threshold is 0. No professional force worth its while will do justice to the profession unless it expects zero foreign infiltration across its borders. The army is doing its job please don't concoct conspiracy theories here. If you have evidence that Army is fudging data then please present it otherwise your post is pure slander.primeargumenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13334888669233995058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-31639980287436669982013-01-21T15:28:05.947-08:002013-01-21T15:28:05.947-08:00I have always sided with your rational statements ...I have always sided with your rational statements Col, even the media overreacting to an extent on the beheading and possible influence on peace process therefore, But in this case I feel the thoughts as on "Anon 20 January 2013 16:18" are no where considered in the article, and the figures you refer to by the Army so not actually speak of massive differences in the number of militants in J&K, but infiltration attempts, success or stopped, and like what happened in the case of Bomb blasts in rest of the country, on that strikes with significance is of the sleeper cells that were activated in Mysore, by terrorists who were lying low for almost 3 years or more, this is just an example, I would expect you have more informed and better examples than this.<br />There would be no shame to making a second attempt at rationalizing the article again with these inputs and point of view and get a ad joiner, correction or a part two and I'm sure people will appreciate it. I'm saying this because unlike other articles, on this one when you have come back to comment on feedback, it's only made your point of view weaker and there is no substance in the replies provided, seems to ignore the actual point of view that should be, while you say you are presenting the facts, it still looks very incomplete and directed against the Army, I don't think that is the intention here, is it.<br />So lets fill in the blanks and get this right and balanced.<br />We still believe in you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-36495661002475608152013-01-21T05:22:15.067-08:002013-01-21T05:22:15.067-08:00Nice article sir,
Don't know if I completely...Nice article sir, <br /><br />Don't know if I completely agree.....You know (truth, lies & statistics). However it is always patriotic to hold institutions to account, security apparatus / services included. Your arguments seem logical and should be food for thought for policy makers and people with outer arguments. All the hard line nationalists commenting should take a breath.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-50629869879972477842013-01-20T22:19:33.492-08:002013-01-20T22:19:33.492-08:00What boss. inconvenient comments not being posted/...What boss. inconvenient comments not being posted/hosted????<br /><br />An informed fauziAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-20727517716701202502013-01-20T10:21:34.730-08:002013-01-20T10:21:34.730-08:00Could you please tell us your entire CI/CT experie...Could you please tell us your entire CI/CT experience,truth seaker?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-40657272827042420712013-01-20T10:13:46.578-08:002013-01-20T10:13:46.578-08:00if infiltration attempts have increased along the ...if infiltration attempts have increased along the LOC but violence in the valley has decreased, then this is troubling news. This can mean that the enemy has broadened its view... kashmir is not their aim now. maybe now infiltrators are ordered to lie in wait all across india...ordered to train, recruite and maybe even provide any sort of help to the naxalites.Kumarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-6436745655071664222013-01-20T09:37:53.696-08:002013-01-20T09:37:53.696-08:00The comments on the thread shows why we as a natio...The comments on the thread shows why we as a nation are where we are. There is no stomach for a differing opinion. Not only that, casting aspersions takes up more space than actual rebuttal. I generally keep quiet but had to write this to let you know that your posts, even unsavory ones are appreciated. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-87324170533223476162013-01-20T09:23:28.181-08:002013-01-20T09:23:28.181-08:00Ajai, I saw your response, and I don't know if...Ajai, I saw your response, and I don't know if you are really dumb or acting like it. <br /><br />This is what you responded:<br /><br />"So, to spell out your ill-considered argument, ceasefire violations are going up, which means there is more infiltration. But all these extra militants infiltrating across the LoC are obviously coming for a vacation, since militant activity inside Kashmir is declining dramatically! "<br /><br />Ceasefire violations doesn't mean infiltration took place, it means the infiltration was attempted. And not all infiltration attempts succeed depending on how the IA on LoC responded. So out of 10 ceasefire violations, one might have succeeded and 2 militans sneaked in, so let us assume they were killed in some operation in J&K later on. Are you now saying that IA is falsely reporting 10 LoC ceasefire violations as only 2 militans were killed? Come on, don't take your readers to be that dumb!<br /><br />Don't be so desperate for a Padma award, or is it the greenbacks calling??<br />Ravinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-68483076452057924622013-01-20T07:26:01.740-08:002013-01-20T07:26:01.740-08:00Safe to conclude Shukla's integrity which was ...Safe to conclude Shukla's integrity which was questionable till recently has been thoroughly compromised. Maybe a KISS too many from the 'revered' Geelani saheb.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-55290213306815641962013-01-20T06:19:48.812-08:002013-01-20T06:19:48.812-08:00bang on target col shukla!!As someone who has been...bang on target col shukla!!As someone who has been in the thick of CI ops I fully concur with your analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-70315334640505023382013-01-20T06:05:37.368-08:002013-01-20T06:05:37.368-08:00Ajai sahib,
Thanks for taking the time to reply to...Ajai sahib,<br />Thanks for taking the time to reply to my earlier comment.<br />I don't know what to make of your assertion that J&K police has taken more causalities. If the discussion is about numbers, then can you explain how many of J&K police fatalities have been due to terrorist activities and how many due to normal policing work ? If you'd see the composition of J&K police personnel involved in counter-terrorist operation, you may be in for a bit of surprise. K part of J&K has very little representation in counter-terror operations. When Kashmiri Hindus suffered violence and exodus, it was due to active inaction and indirect support from the K part. When BSF was deployed in counter-terror ops, they had to fight on two fronts, 1 being terrorists and 2nd being the K police. I assume that you must have quite a few friends involved in J&K operations. You can confirm whatever I'm saying. <br /><br />I accept terrorism is one the wane now, but it was nearly dead in 2002-2004 too. All it took was support of terrorist sympathisers in govt, Muftis and some others in NC to get revived again. If your point is that army is lying for whatever reason and Kashmir dominated state machinery is doing good work in combating terrorism, the I must say that you are wrong. Army needs to stay here and so does AFSPA. Running these hatchet jobs is confusing and leaves a bad taste. J&K police simply doesn't have motivation, training, will or power to combat terrorism. jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-9004021139733719812013-01-20T05:53:08.830-08:002013-01-20T05:53:08.830-08:00If finding Truth is about taking perception, then ...If finding Truth is about taking perception, then I must say Ajai, you lost already. There are too many comments against your perception.<br /><br />If finding Truth is about data based analysis, well then you have only given a snapshot of what you want truth to be.<br /><br />Beacuse of that the one big miss in this analysis is you are looking at just two years of the past to predict the future, when one should be going all way back to the Great Game plyed in Afghan.<br /><br />So let me ask what will happen after 2014 when US withdraws from Afghan? Once the Afghan is secured by the Taliban, where do they then go for the fight?<br /><br />Now you could reply saying you are not trying to predeict the future. But your intention is all about reducing the miltary's say on the peace process with Pakistan and give more voice to the Track 2 team.<br /><br />When the shit hits the fan some guys run but some guys stay. And when the shit hits again, it would only be the military that will stay; not the politicians, not the track 2 peace process team and especially not you, but the military.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-17833673388572172862013-01-20T03:44:25.692-08:002013-01-20T03:44:25.692-08:00You are an idiot Ajai. If army is taken out today ...You are an idiot Ajai. If army is taken out today and replaced by J&K police whole of kashmir will be with Pakistan in no time.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-11829444365288272002013-01-20T02:48:50.960-08:002013-01-20T02:48:50.960-08:00"Are you really arguing that ceasefire violat...<i>"Are you really arguing that ceasefire violations have nothing to do with infiltration, even as the army itself argues that most ceasefire violations are really covering fire for militant infiltration?<br /><br /><b>So, to spell out your ill-considered argument, ceasefire violations are going up, which means there is more infiltration. But all these extra militants infiltrating across the LoC are obviously coming for a vacation, since militant activity inside Kashmir is declining dramatically!</b><br /><br />Wow! I'm surprised anyone would publicly make such an argument."</i><br /><br />Just when you think you cannot amaze anyone any more you pull out a new one. And you talk about ill-considered arguments! Wow!<br /><br />Lets just examine what your wrote, ceasefire violations have gone up (Army claim) and ceasefire violations are an attempt to infiltrate terrorists (again Army claim)<br /><br />Against this you claim that there's no corresponding increase in J&K police figures? <br /><br />Hain Ji, didn't it even occur to you that it quite possible that, due to the Army's strong response, many of those attempts at infiltration was FOILED?<br /><br />Didn't ever cross your mind that, perhaps, its a vicious cycle that's happening on the LoC? That is there are increased ceasefire violations and firing due to the fact that Pakistan's attempts at infiltrating militants are failing much more frequently than before and hence they are becoming desperate.<br /><br />At the same time because they are failing (that is infiltration attempts) there's a corresponding fall in the J&K police figures?<br /><br />Do you realise there is an inversely proportional relation to the ceasefire violation/cross border firing/terrorist infiltration and J&K Police encounters?<br /><br />Sorry Colonel (Rtd) ji, you're a bad advertisement for the Army - not because you criticise them but because if this is the analytical ability of the officer cadre... Sigh! <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-18011987670749770052013-01-20T02:24:50.374-08:002013-01-20T02:24:50.374-08:00so the you are joining the chorus to remove AFSPA ...so the you are joining the chorus to remove AFSPA right..???<br />Great, indeed so much drama going on...!!! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-2565477893681576682013-01-20T01:38:39.651-08:002013-01-20T01:38:39.651-08:00The only way for India to make progress is for it ...The only way for India to make progress is for it to be divided into a number of states based on community,caste & religion . Homogenous countries make progress as is evident by the success of US , EU and China . Countries like India , Pakistan will continue to remain 3rd world in the forseeable future unless they are further dividedLori Geiger ( Nashville,TN)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-81445642395485669132013-01-19T23:32:43.923-08:002013-01-19T23:32:43.923-08:00"The J&K Policy is one such organization&..."The J&K Policy is one such organization"<br /><br />Shukla, probably you were frothing with anger when you posted your rebuttal. You actually meant J&K Police instead you posted "J&K Policy". <br /><br />At least stop frothing dear while posting your REBUTTAL. We all know anger is your birth right so we will not ask you to moderate it, but buddy frothing is bad.<br /><br />Shukla your figure and by others like SATP just reveal one side of coin and that is "THE LULLL BEFORE THE STORM". With active withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan will create incidents and events in India that will take away attention from Afghanistan and itself. It will revive Jehad in Kashmir so that it gets time to reorganize its strategic depth in Afghanistan. So assets that it had inserted will be active from mid-year 2013 and will be in full color by 2014. <br /><br />So shut-up your crap and let Army do its job. This is a broad chess game and peaceniks like you have so easily played into hands of enemy strategists. <br /><br />Pakistan can only be stopped and forced to reverse its state sponsored terrorism by coercion and asymmetry of strategy and technology. Where you Peaceniks or Track-II fit well is "Buying Time".<br />Currently, likes of you "AMAN KI ASHA" are rather "Wasting Time".<br /><br />And yes i am Anonymous by my choice, so no need to create a scene about it. I welcome your reply, but it should have substance of strategy and factors not included in your article. Please forbid yourself from frothing your choicest homilies.<br /><br />Both Indian Army and MOD (GOI) are very mature and are in fact growing in intellect and bringing change (remember dextrous handling of last COAS's episode, even when it was extremely embarrassing for GOI - they never let haste take over strategic gains. Firing Army's own COAS would have been disastrous for INA's morale). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-77331816275079783082013-01-19T22:38:12.761-08:002013-01-19T22:38:12.761-08:00Tsk tsk Man,you sold out.Tsk tsk Man,you sold out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-31561374210446746332013-01-19T21:55:54.277-08:002013-01-19T21:55:54.277-08:00you said:
You know, one of the reasons why the a...you said:<br /><br /><i> You know, one of the reasons why the army has no internal reform or correctives is because there are too many rah-rah boys and girls, both inside the army and apologists who don't ask the hard questions and demand the hard steps that are needed to keep this fine organization in growth mode. <br /></i><br /><br />Othe other way round is also true. Whenever Army takes hard decisions after due deliberations there are many rah rahs like you who call it "Mandalisation".<br /><br />Courage has to be picked up for right things and not for engineering revolts and demotivate.<br /><br />Institutions like J&K police has to be brought up by strengthening them and building their capacities and not by sowing seeds of differences, and not at all by telling that IA Generals are a bunch of liers. Not for for being the state guest of Omar or guest of Gilani..<br /><br />On top of that you are pontificating. Courage has to be blended with morality otherwise dacoits too have courage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-63233422985527881552013-01-19T21:32:45.998-08:002013-01-19T21:32:45.998-08:00Shuklaji
I am JUST a Civilian
but I wonder HOW ...Shuklaji <br /><br />I am JUST a Civilian <br />but I wonder HOW could a RETIRED <br />COLONEL could not understand the <br />significance of the above data<br /><br />The militants who do manage to sneak in are lying LOW for the moment<br /><br />They are TROJAN HORSES waiting for 2014 <br /><br />The Army's JOB is to ensure that <br />TERRITORY of J and K remains with India <br /><br />But the TERRITORY of J and K can <br />ONLY be taken by PAKISTAN when there is a PINCER ATTACK <br /><br />Post 2014 LOC will be STORMED <br />Externally <br /><br />And Internally these terrorists who are lying LOW will strikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-72137313646764310962013-01-19T21:12:57.608-08:002013-01-19T21:12:57.608-08:00Good argument Ajai -- the Internet lets empty-head...Good argument Ajai -- the Internet lets empty-headed nationalists of all stripes mouth off, and apparently facts and figures are of no relevance to these emotional, fragile folks in desperate need of a hug by Arnab Goswami.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-91688632119357433352013-01-19T20:37:56.994-08:002013-01-19T20:37:56.994-08:00Ajai this is with respect to your aboce comment. P...Ajai this is with respect to your aboce comment. Pl understand something.<br /><br />Agreed the terrorists are not coming on a vacation. But increased infiltration need not immediately translate into viuolence increase. terrorist tactics have changed. they are noe scared to take on the Army & Security forces. When was the last time you heard of a fidayeen attack on Army post? Or a terrorist taking on an army patrol?<br /><br />Direct contacts have decreased. But dont let that fool you. they are still there. The killings of sarpanches should convince you of that. That they can up the ante anytime is a known fact. would you agree with that!<br /><br />So to say that J&K govt says this so army must be lying is a very irrational deduction. You dont question the state govt figures so by what right do you question the army's?. Let me upgrade your knowledge. there is an organisation called MAC which has representatives from all security and intelligence agencies and state govt. they meet on monthly basis and compare their inputs. Infiltration inputs and figures are discussed and a broad consensus arrived at. the consequential figure then becomes the accepted figure for all including the state govt. why dont you ask the state govt to give its figures of infiltration?? they will be same as the army's OK<br /><br />I write as an informed fauziAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-43446838405337605882013-01-19T18:58:43.457-08:002013-01-19T18:58:43.457-08:00Am completely amazed at the utter irrationality of...Am completely amazed at the utter irrationality of so many of the comments that have been posted above.<br /><br />Are people actually arguing that there is no relationship between militant infiltration on the LoC, and the level of militant activity in the hinterland? <br /><br />Are these people actually saying that lots of militants are infiltrating, but they're not doing any activity in Kashmir once they have infiltrated?<br /><br />Are they arguing that militants are infiltrating for a holiday in Kashmir? And that, since they can't take the flight from Delhi or the bus from Jammu, they now infiltrate into Kashmir for their vacations.<br /><br />Are you really arguing that ceasefire violations have nothing to do with infiltration, even as the army itself argues that most ceasefire violations are really covering fire for militant infiltration?<br /><br />So, to spell out your ill-considered argument, ceasefire violations are going up, which means there is more infiltration. But all these extra militants infiltrating across the LoC are obviously coming for a vacation, since militant activity inside Kashmir is declining dramatically!<br /><br />Wow! I'm surprised anyone would publicly make such an argument.<br /><br />You know, one of the reasons why the army has no internal reform or correctives is because there are too many rah-rah boys and girls, both inside the army and apologists who don't ask the hard questions and demand the hard steps that are needed to keep this fine organization in growth mode. <br /><br />If you don't have the courage to ask the hard questions, step aside when those questions are asked by someone with more courage than you. Let the army answer.<br /><br />Incidentally, the J&K Police, which so many of you criticize so heavily, has taken far greater casualties in proportional terms than the army and is delivering far better results in terms of intelligence gathering and counter-militant operations than the army is.<br /><br />And, as anyone with even elementary knowledge of counter-insurgency knows, the contest is eventually won not by sustaining armed force (which India can do indefinitely) but by building up institutions that are manned (and womanned) by people from within the counter-insurgency area. The J&K Policy is one such organization.Broadswordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13076780076240598482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8726844009873922462.post-44252484771786954682013-01-19T11:32:50.913-08:002013-01-19T11:32:50.913-08:00As somebody said....Statistics are like a bikini.....As somebody said....Statistics are like a bikini....what they reveal is essential, but what they conceal is vital.....Shuklaji has already pre-judged the Army's claim on the LOC (many readers of this blog can figure out his bias against the army).....Since we have not seen the entire set of numbers, there cannot be any independent verification that what Shukla is analyzing and presenting here is true....Also, one should bear in mind that J&K government's report would have been prepared and sanctioned by the state politicians before getting released...I will not bet on its objectivity...However, the army's report is the work of a professional organization...it is far more credible.....Also, 72 militants getting killed in India means that the terrorist threat is still very credible....imagine if somebody told US president Obama that there are 72 Al Qaida fighters in US, then Pakistan Amry would be quaking in its pants!Dhruva Mishranoreply@blogger.com